Volume Negates Luck

One of the hardest things about surfing is how unpredictable it can be. You can do everything right—check the forecast, time the tide, paddle out early—and still come up short. Crowds, shifting conditions, missed waves... it all stacks up. And yeah, a lot of it does come down to luck.

But here’s the part that matters: you can reduce how much luck plays a role and the way you do that is by putting in the work in sheer volume.

Most people underestimate the volume required
Most of us underestimate the volume of time and effort it really takes to get to the level we want. A lot of sessions don’t look or feel productive—but they’re necessary.

A few years back, I was surfing a decent hurricane swell. I'd been in the water for a couple hours and was getting frustrated. Crowds were thick, the tide wasn’t quite right, and the sets weren’t doing what we expected. I hadn’t caught much.

Then I ran into pro surfer Ian Crane, who’d been out as long as I had. I mentioned how the session felt off and how I hadn't scored any good ones yet. He just shrugged and said, “Yeah, I haven’t caught the waves I want either... but the day’s still young.”

That stuck with me. Two and a half hours into a session, and to him, it was still just the beginning. That mindset was the real difference. I was thinking like the session was ending. He was thinking like it hadn’t even started. He was just like, well, we just have to be patient. And we just have to wait for the conditions to align and then eventually, if and when the conditions align, if I put the time in and I put the work in and I have the patience, that's when I'm going to get lucky. That's what I mean by volume negates luck.

The High-Level Workload
This reminded me of something Koa Rothman once said—how he surfed nine hours straight and caught two waves. And he considered that a good day. Think about that. Nine hours for two waves. That’s the kind of patience and work ethic you don’t see unless you’re really paying attention.

Guys at that level aren’t just more skilled—they’re also putting in way more time and effort than most of us are able or willing to. If you're surfing 1–2 hours a week and expecting major progress, it's worth stepping back and resetting your expectations.

What If You Don’t Have That Much Time?
Time is one of the biggest constraints for most surfers. Jobs, family, school—it all adds up. Most of us can’t spend nine hours chasing two waves. But that just means that you have to be as efficient as possible with the time you do have. And one of the best ways to do that? Improve your paddle strength and endurance on land—because that’s often the bottleneck in your sessions.

Paddle Train on Land
If you only surf once or twice a week, you can still build on paddle volume—just not all of it has to be in the ocean. Dryland training can fill that gap. Specifically, the Basis Paddle Trainer is a solid way to get in paddle reps when you’re not in the water.

It helps build strength, stamina, and the muscle memory you need for better wave positioning. So when the swell actually lines up—and luck finally turns your way—you’re ready to take full advantage of it. You can get that volume in and that is going to negate a huge amount of your luck.

Check it out at www.surfbasis.com

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